How 30 Years of Federal Background Checks Changed Gun Buying, by the Numbers

While the bulk of these background checks were for firearm purchases, some were for concealed carry permits, gun pawns, and other transfers covered by the law. The number of checks per year has grown significantly over time, increasing by an average of 5 percent each year. In 2020, the number of NICS checks hit an all-time high of 39 million, up 40 percent from 2019. The increase reflects the record number of gun sales that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. [FBI NICS Division]

These denials occurred because an FBI search of the NICS indices turned up a record that legally disqualified the person from owning firearms. This total does not include denials in states where state or local law enforcement handles the background checks. In 2023, the Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated that federal and state agencies combined had denied a total of 4.4 million firearm background check applications since 1994. [FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics]

This estimate from the Bureau of Justice Statistics encompasses denials issued at both the state and federal levels. Between 1998 and 2020, state and federal background checks blocked an average of 509 prohibited gun purchases and permits each day. However, when BJS looked solely at 2019 and 2020 — a period that overlaps with the pandemic gun-buying surge — the average number of denials jumped to 878 per day. [Bureau of Justice Statistics]

Federal law prohibits people from owning firearms if they have been convicted of a felony or certain misdemeanors. Since the national background checks system went into place, this prohibitor has been the most common reason applications are denied. Compared to the FBI, state and local agencies deny for felony reasons at a lower rate, but one that still accounts for the largest proportion of denials. State and local agencies deny applications for state prohibitions and mental health reasons at a higher rate than the FBI. [FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics]

The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which President Joe Biden signed in 2022, was the first major gun reform law passed since the Brady Bill in 1993. President Bill Clinton approved a ban on assault weapons in 1994, but that law expired 10 years later. There have been other federal gun bills enacted since Brady, but none that imposed significant new gun regulations. For example, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, or PLCAA — signed by President George W. Bush in 2005 — protects gun manufacturers from lawsuits stemming from the criminal misuse of their products.

NICS is a matrix of databases containing records about people who cannot own, buy, or possess firearms.  Most background checks through NICS return results within minutes, but missing or incomplete records can cause delays. If a check isn’t completed within three days, the gun sale can proceed in most cases. This gap is known as the Charleston Loophole. [FBI]

The private sales loophole, also known as the gun show loophole, is one of the largest gaps in the background check system. While brick-and-mortar gun stores and other federally licensed firearms dealers are legally obligated to initiate background checks, that requirement does not extend to so-called private sellers, a group that has historically been loosely defined under federal law. Since 1999, congressional lawmakers have filed at least two dozen bills to close all or some of the private sales loophole. While no such bill has passed, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act did expand who is legally obligated to obtain a federal license before selling firearms, potentially decreasing the number of private sales.

While Congress has failed to pass a universal background check bill, at least 20 states now require background checks on all or most gun sales, including on private sales. Minnesota and Michigan were the latest states to enact such laws, passing them in 2023. [The Trace]

While gun sales have grown significantly since 2000, the number of gun dealers has been on the decline. From 1985 to 1994, an average of 234,299 gun dealers — more dealers than gas stations or McDonald’s — held valid federal firearms licenses each fiscal year. Many of these were “kitchen-table” dealers, so called because they operated without a storefront and were often selling guns out of their homes. 

By the late-1990s, licensing reforms pushed by the Clinton administration combined with the Brady Bill to put the dealer population on a downward trend. There were 52,000 gun dealers in 2020, down nearly 80 percent from the 1985-to-1994 average. [Violence Policy Center and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives]

The Brady Bill’s main goal was to curb gun violence, which hit record levels in the 10 years leading up to its passage. While gun homicide rates have declined since the law took effect in 1994, they have not fallen by as much as many had hoped.  An average of 15,300 people died each year in firearm homicides between 1985 and 1994, an average annual rate of 6.1 firearm homicides per 100,000 people.

From 1995 through 2021, the latest year for which full data is available, firearm homicides claimed about 13,000 lives each year. That is an average annual rate of 4.3 firearm homicides per 100,000 people. [CDC Wonder]

Like homicides, firearm suicides peaked in the lead-up to the Brady Bill. They declined through the end of the 1990s and early 2000s, before beginning to rise again later that decade. From 1995 to 2021, the average annual firearm suicide rate was 6.5 per 100,000 — down from 7.4 in the decade leading up to Brady. Each year, firearm suicides claim an average of 34,000 lives, constituting the bulk of U.S. gun deaths. Provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that firearm suicides reached a record high in 2022, with 8.1 deaths per 100,000 people. [CDC Wonder]

While the Brady Bill added safeguards to the process of buying guns, it did not stop guns from growing more ubiquitous. Since 1994, more than 121.8 million long guns, 136.9 million handguns, and 10.6 million other firearms have been manufactured or imported into the U.S. market. This total accounts for more than 54 percent of all firearms produced for the U.S. market since 1899 and 71 percent of the country’s estimated total guns in circulation.

Firearm production has surged in the years since Brady, even when accounting for population growth. An average of 5.1 million firearms were produced for the American market each year in the decade before Brady’s passage. Since then, an average of 9.3 million firearms have been produced each year. A record 22.5 million new firearms flooded the U.S. market in 2021. [The Trace]