Just a few decades ago, carrying concealed firearms in public was illegal in much of the country. Until 2010, only two states — Vermont and Alaska — allowed adults to carry guns without a permit. But in the past decade, with help from gun rights advocates and the NRA, permitless carry has become the norm.
Proponents argued that removing permit requirements would make people safer. By removing roadblocks for citizens to carry, they said, more would do so, and it would deter or stop shootings. But by that metric, permitless carry appears to have been unsuccessful: Most states endured more fatal shootings after the laws took effect.
The Trace analyzed gun violence data and found that 16 of the 20 states that enacted permitless carry between 2015 and 2022 saw more shooting deaths — excluding suicides — after the laws took effect than during an equivalent time period before. In his latest story, reporter Chip Brownlee breaks down the data, explores existing research, and examines how these laws have played out in the real world — like at the mass shooting at a Super Bowl parade in Kansas City, Missouri, earlier this year.
In another new piece, Brownlee looks at a major report on the flip side: whether specific gun laws have influenced the current drop in violence. The RAND Corporation recently put out a significant update to its “The Science of Gun Policy” report, the most comprehensive look at the effects of gun regulations out there. In a line of study where very few effects can be authoritatively linked back to causes, RAND’s report has long been respected among gun policy researchers and violence prevention advocates as a panoramic accounting of the state of the field.
The decline in gun violence is “a good sign,” Charles Branas, who chairs the epidemiology department at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, told Brownlee and The Trace’s Jennifer Mascia this week, speaking on newly published provisional figures for 2023 from the CDC. But the falling numbers weren’t evenly distributed: Gun suicides hit an all-time high, and child gun deaths rose. There was also considerable variation between regions. The South — a region with high gun ownership and permissive gun laws, like permitless carry — had the highest number of gun deaths and gun death rate, the CDC data shows.
“Any real celebration is premature,” Branas continued. “Every gun death is a tragedy, especially if it’s your family member or friend, and there are clearly not reductions in especially heartbreaking losses, like among kids.”
From The Trace
Permitless Carry Will Deter Shootings, Proponents Said. That’s Not What’s Happened.
A new Trace analysis examines the rate of fatalities in states where permitless carry was made law. Most saw shooting fatalities surge.
Gun Deaths Fell in 2023 — Except Among Kids
While overall gun deaths continued to decline from their post-pandemic peak, child gun deaths rose, and gun suicides hit a record high.
Are These Gun Safety Laws Helping to Reduce Violence?
An update to a major meta-analysis adds to our understanding of how some common firearm regulations may contribute to public safety.
What to Know This Week
Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate in the race for the White House. Of the governors who were on the list of potential contenders, Walz has one of the most unlikely gun reform records. [The Trace]
A federal appeals court ruled that Maryland’s ban on the sale and possession of some assault-style weapons is constitutional, finding that the firearms covered by the ban “fall outside the ambit of protection offered by the Second Amendment” because they are essentially designed for combat, not self-defense. The decision sets up a potential Supreme Court battle. The Second Amendment Foundation and the Firearms Policy Coalition, gun groups involved in a legal attack designed to dismantle America’s gun laws, are both plaintiffs in the case. [Courthouse News/Reuters]
A U.S. district judge dismissed much of a lawsuit by the Mexican government accusing America’s largest gunmakers of aiding and abetting the trafficking of weapons across the border. The Boston-based judge dismissed claims against six of the eight companies named in the suit, saying that their connections to Massachusetts were “gossamer-thin at best”; Smith & Wesson, which is based in Springfield, and a wholesaler remain defendants. Mexico’s foreign ministry said it will continue taking legal action against the companies. [Reuters]
Across the country, schools are declining to open their doors as polling sites, or canceling classes on Election Day. Officials say that heightened safety protocols prompted by school shootings and frequent attacks on voting sites have necessitated the move. [The Washington Post]
Qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that’s frequently used to shield police accused of misconduct from civil lawsuits, is receiving renewed attention because of the killing of Sonya Massey in Illinois — and former President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to give officers “immunity from prosecution.” Two legal experts explain how the idea of qualified immunity came into being, the real-world effects of the doctrine, and where the current effort to eliminate it stands. [Capital B]
The Texas Department of Public Safety reinstated the only officer it had planned to fire over the botched law enforcement response to the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde two years ago. According to documents written by the agency’s head, the officer, a Texas Ranger, was restored to his position last week at the county attorney’s request after he was cleared of criminal wrongdoing. [Austin American-Statesman]
March 2020 marked not only the beginning of coronavirus pandemic restrictions in the U.S., but also a groundswell of firearm sales. Though that spike has calmed over the past few years, it marked a turning point in America’s relationship with firearms — one that could be very difficult to come back from. [Vox]
In Memoriam
Todd Kidd, 49, loved hockey. Even after a college career with the Pioneers, Denver University’s team, and three seasons as a professional player, the rink was never far from his mind — the sport “was his lifeline,” his older sister told CBS Colorado. Kidd was shot and killed last month outside the restaurant he worked at in Denver’s arts district. He was a painter, and a free spirit. Friends remembered the spring break Kidd spent hopping freight trains, the time he became the mayor of a village at Burning Man, and perhaps his zaniest idea of all: In college, while living with two other hockey players, Kidd welcomed an acquaintance from high school and his 1-year-old baby into their four-bedroom home. It was an example of how “he took care of people,” the friend told The Denver Gazette — an example of why he seemed to have “such an impact so far and wide on the Denver community,” per his sister. “There was no one else like him,” a friend said. “He was irreplaceable.”
We Recommend
“A special series … that examines what it looks like when one community dramatically changes how it responds to people in crisis.” [Tradeoffs and The Marshall Project]
Pull Quote
“It just takes one flash point to ignite something that’s catastrophic, and I absolutely don’t want that to happen on any one of my campuses.”
— Scott Menzel, superintendent of the Scottsdale, Arizona, school district, on schools deciding against using their campuses as polling places, to The Washington Post
